Figure Technology Solutions Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Figure Technology Solutions Inc

FIGRNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $63.69median of 4 methods · middle span $49-$78based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $28.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 123% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+123%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6.4B

Enterprise Value $5.6B

Shares Outstanding 224.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Figure Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: FIGR) is a highly scalable, capital-light, blockchain-native capital marketplace that is successfully modernizing the origination, funding, and trading of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). By leveraging its proprietary Provenance Blockchain infrastructure, Figure has established itself as the leading non-bank provider of HELOCs while rapidly expanding into first-lien mortgages, residential transition loans (RTLs), and decentralized finance (DeFi) products like Democratized Prime and the yield-bearing stablecoin $YLDS. The company's capital-light model delivers exceptional operating leverage, as evidenced by its 49.6% Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 2026. While a recent cybersecurity incident in early 2026 introduces near-term litigation and reputational risks, the underlying business momentum—accelerated by the strategic acquisition of Kiavi—presents a highly compelling growth profile with significant valuation upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$31.00

Mean target$51.57

High · most bullish analyst$70.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$31.00

Severe reputational damage and partner churn result from the early 2026 data breach, leading to a slowdown in new partner onboarding. Regulatory scrutiny intensifies over the company's blockchain-native equity structure and DeFi protocols, while macroeconomic headwinds or a housing market downturn compress HELOC demand and secondary market liquidity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$51.57

Matches the consensus mean

Figure continues to scale its Consumer Loan Marketplace volume in line with guidance, supported by steady partner onboarding and the successful closing of the Kiavi acquisition. First-lien loans steadily rise as a percentage of total volume, and Adjusted EBITDA margins remain robust at around 50%. Near-term data breach litigation is managed through insurance and modest settlements without disrupting core operations.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$70.00

Rapid adoption of the Provenance Blockchain by major institutional partners (such as Flagstar Bank) drives exponential growth in marketplace volume. The integration of Kiavi successfully adds over $7 billion in annual first-lien volume, pushing EBITDA margins toward the 60% medium-term target ahead of schedule. DeFi initiatives like Democratized Prime and $YLDS scale rapidly, establishing Figure as the dominant global infrastructure for tokenized real-world assets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Capital-light, highly scalable marketplace model delivering ~50% Adjusted EBITDA margins.
Dominant market position in blockchain-native HELOC origination and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
Significant growth optionality from expanding into the massive first-lien mortgage and investor-property lending markets via the Kiavi acquisition.
Strong balance sheet with $1.46 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Litigation and reputational risks stemming from the early 2026 cybersecurity breach affecting ~1 million user records.
Sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles, interest rate fluctuations, and housing market valuations.
Evolving and highly complex regulatory frameworks governing digital assets, tokenized securities, and DeFi protocols.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in Consumer Loan Marketplace volume or active partner counts.
Severe regulatory enforcement actions targeting the $YLDS stablecoin or the Democratized Prime protocol.
Failure to successfully integrate the Kiavi acquisition or realize the projected $35 million in synergies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.