Figma Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $27.64median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.5B Enterprise Value $11.1B Shares Outstanding 533M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Figma entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue grew 48% year over year, Net Dollar Retention Rate was 136%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance. More than 80% of paid customers above $10,000 in ARR consumed AI credits weekly, while the Figma agent was used weekly by more than 50% of that cohort as of July 31. These indicators support the platform-expansion thesis, but management's third-quarter outlook implies growth moderating to 36% at the midpoint, and AI-credit monetization had completed only its first full quarter. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$30.50 High · most bullish analyst$37.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $25.0018% Revenue growth falls below the 36% third-quarter guidance benchmark, Net Dollar Retention Rate declines from 136%, or adoption of AI credits and the Figma agent fails to translate into sustained expansion. Such outcomes would weaken evidence that Figma's broader AI-enabled platform can offset growth normalization. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.5056% Matches the consensus meanFigma approximately delivers its third-quarter and full-year outlook, with third-quarter growth near the guided 36% midpoint and full-year growth near the guided 39% midpoint. Customer expansion remains healthy but moderates from the second-quarter pace. Bull CaseUpside scenario $37.0026% Revenue growth remains above the 36% third-quarter guidance midpoint as Code Layers, Figma Make, the Figma agent, and creative tools broaden usage. Net Dollar Retention Rate remains at or above 136%, weekly AI-credit consumption among paid customers above $10,000 in ARR remains above 80%, and adoption converts into durable seat and usage expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |