Fidelity National Financial Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fidelity National Financial Inc

FNFNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)0.96

Intrinsic Value $32.15median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$50based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $39.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $10.5B

Enterprise Value $11.3B

Shares Outstanding 267M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

FNF's operating position is balanced. The Title segment delivered a 17.8% adjusted pre-tax margin in the second quarter of 2026, with adjusted pre-tax earnings rising 33% and commercial revenue rising 32%, demonstrating substantial earnings power despite a constrained residential market. F&G provides diversification and reached record assets under management before reinsurance, but its quarterly gross and net sales and FNF-attributable adjusted earnings declined year over year. Continued dividends and repurchases support shareholder returns.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$54.00

Mean target$61.40

High · most bullish analyst$70.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$54.0020%

Persistently elevated mortgage rates and weak real-estate transactions reduce Title order volumes and pull adjusted pre-tax margin below its prior-year benchmark. At the same time, F&G sales and retained assets weaken, alternative-investment returns remain below management's expectations, and market-related accounting volatility reduces reported earnings and capital-return flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$61.4058%

Matches the consensus mean

Title remains the principal earnings engine, supported by commercial strength, scale and disciplined expenses, while residential activity improves only gradually. F&G assets continue growing, but lower opportunistic sales, reduced retained economics after reinsurance transactions and FNF's lower ownership interest temper consolidated growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$70.0022%

A recovery in residential purchase and refinance activity adds operating leverage to already-strong Title results, while commercial transaction momentum and technology-enabled efficiency sustain elevated margins. F&G continues expanding assets under management and higher-margin, less-capital-intensive fee streams, allowing FNF to maintain substantial dividends and repurchases.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Title demonstrated strong operating leverage in the second quarter of 2026: adjusted pre-tax earnings increased 33% to $448 million and adjusted pre-tax margin reached 17.8%.
Commercial title activity is an important counterweight to weak residential conditions: quarterly commercial revenue increased 32% to $440 million, with opened and closed commercial orders also increasing.
Capital returns remain meaningful: FNF returned approximately $417 million through dividends and repurchases during the first half of 2026 and subsequently declared another $0.52 quarterly dividend.

Key Investment Risks

Residential title activity remains exposed to elevated mortgage rates and historically low transaction volumes.
F&G's second-quarter gross sales fell to $2.719 billion from $4.106 billion, net sales fell to $1.464 billion from $2.744 billion, and FNF-attributable adjusted earnings declined to $65 million from $89 million.
F&G produced a second-quarter attributable net loss of $55 million despite adjusted earnings of $65 million, illustrating the material effect of market-related and other non-GAAP adjustments on reported results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.