Ferrovial SE Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ferrovial SE

FEREuronext Amsterdam

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction & Engineering

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value $40.16median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$50based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $52.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $38.1B

Enterprise Value $44.6B

Shares Outstanding 718.7M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend19 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ferrovial's H1 2026 evidence is operationally favorable: adjusted EBITDA increased 21.6% like-for-like, North American highways delivered strong pricing, Construction maintained its 3.5% long-term margin target with a record EUR18.046 billion order book, and New Terminal One reached 92% construction completion. The August selection of the Ferrovial-led consortium for Tennessee's USD9.2 billion I-24 Choice Lanes project reinforces the long-duration North American pipeline. Offsetting these merits are mixed traffic volumes across individual managed lanes, execution exposure to a small number of complex projects, government-contracting and financing risks, and remaining commissioning risk at New Terminal One.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$70.18

Mean target$77.65

High · most bullish analyst$92.58

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$70.1823%

USD48 per Nasdaq-listed share. The bear case assumes traffic weakness broadens across North American assets, Construction margin falls below its long-term target, one or more large projects experience delay or cost pressure, and New Terminal One commissioning or airline commercialization underperforms.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$77.6558%

Matches the consensus mean

USD70 per Nasdaq-listed share. The base case assumes highway revenue remains supported by pricing despite mixed traffic, Construction holds around its 3.5% long-term margin target, New Terminal One progresses without a material reset, and the enlarged North American pipeline supports long-duration value creation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$92.5819%

USD84 per Nasdaq-listed share. The bull case assumes sustained highway pricing above inflation, improving transaction growth across the managed-lane portfolio, successful completion and commercialization of New Terminal One, continued conversion of the record Construction order book near or above the 3.5% margin target, and effective execution of the I-24 Choice Lanes opportunity.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 21.6% like-for-like to EUR746 million, while revenue increased 11.3% like-for-like to EUR4.701 billion.
Highways revenue increased 15.8% like-for-like, with revenue per transaction rising between 8.7% and 18.9% across the five disclosed U.S. Express Lane assets.
Construction achieved a 3.5% adjusted EBIT margin and a record EUR18.046 billion order book, with North America representing 47.9% of that backlog.
New Terminal One reached 92% construction completion and had 32 airline agreements or letters of intent as of July 28, 2026.
The Ferrovial-led DriveTN consortium was selected for Tennessee's USD9.2 billion I-24 Southeast Choice Lanes project, expanding the North American development pipeline.

Key Investment Risks

Traffic growth was mixed in H1 2026: transactions declined 2.0% at NTE and 5.2% at I-77 even as revenue per transaction increased.
Ferrovial identifies dependence on a small number of major projects, government contracting, competitive bidding and project cost or schedule estimation as material uncertainties.
New Terminal One remains exposed to completion, commissioning and airline-commercialization execution despite reaching 92% construction progress.
Large public-private partnership projects require sustained access to financing and successful management of joint ventures, subcontractors and public-sector counterparties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.