Ferguson Enterprises Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $201.10median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $221.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $42.8B Enterprise Value $47.3B Shares Outstanding 193.5M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ferguson's operating trajectory is constructive: second-quarter sales increased 4.6%, first-half adjusted operating margin reached 9.7%, non-residential revenue grew 8%, residential revenue returned to 2% growth, and management raised calendar-2026 guidance. The scale-advantaged acquisition strategy adds upside, including the pending FloWorks transaction, but residential construction and repair activity remain subdued, quarterly gross margin declined, and acquisition execution raises integration and leverage considerations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$235.00 Mean target$288.35 High · most bullish analyst$325.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $235.0020% Residential construction and repair activity weaken again, supplier-pricing benefits fade, and business mix pressures margins below guidance. FloWorks closing or integration is delayed, acquisition spending raises leverage above the stated target range, and weaker cash conversion constrains shareholder returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $288.3555% Matches the consensus meanCalendar-2026 sales grow at a mid-single-digit rate and adjusted operating margin remains within the 9.5%-9.8% guidance range. Non-residential growth and market-share gains offset a gradual rather than rapid residential recovery, while acquisitions broaden capabilities without materially impairing balance-sheet flexibility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $325.0025% Non-residential momentum remains strong, residential demand continues recovering, and Ferguson reaches the upper end of its 9.5%-9.8% adjusted operating-margin guidance. FloWorks closes on schedule and contributes its technical capabilities, recurring maintenance exposure and expected synergies without pushing leverage outside the 1.0x-2.0x target range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |