FedEx Freight Dossier - Source-backed chat

FedEx Freight

FDXFNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryCargo Ground Transportation

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $110.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $16.5B

Shares Outstanding 149.5M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

FedEx Freight entered public ownership with unmatched North American LTL scale, a differentiated Priority and Economy service model, and a medium-term framework calling for profitable growth and strong cash generation. Near-term execution is less certain: management expects industrial softness through the remainder of 2026, the company must complete a complex technology and service separation from FedEx, and its newly independent capital structure introduces material fixed obligations. A neutral Hold stance is therefore appropriate pending evidence that transition-period growth and margins meet guidance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$108.00

Mean target$169.42

High · most bullish analyst$200.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$108.0024%

Revenue growth falls below the 4% transition-period guidance floor, reported operating margin falls below 9%, or dependence on FedEx transition services extends beyond the disclosed two-year horizon. Persistent industrial weakness, pricing competition, separation dis-synergies, or technology migration problems would delay the medium-term framework and pressure cash generation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$169.4258%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue and operating margin remain within the transition-period guidance ranges while industrial softness limits shipment growth. Revenue quality, network optimization, and declining separation costs support gradual improvement.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$200.0018%

The company reaches or exceeds the upper ends of its transition-period revenue and margin ranges, converts its network scale and dedicated LTL sales organization into sustained share gains, and progresses toward its medium-term 4%-6% revenue CAGR, 10%-12% adjusted operating-income CAGR, and greater-than-$1 billion free-cash-flow framework without material separation disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The largest North American LTL network provides more than 26,000 service-center doors, over 365 locations, nearly 30,000 motorized vehicles, and broad customer proximity.
The Priority and Economy offerings provide differentiated speed-and-cost choices, while Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue per shipment increased to $415.22 despite lower shipment volume.
Management's medium-term framework targets 4%-6% revenue CAGR, 10%-12% adjusted operating-income CAGR, approximately 5% capital expenditures to revenue, more than $1 billion of free cash flow, and greater than 90% conversion.

Key Investment Risks

Management expects industrial-economy softness to pressure LTL demand through the remainder of calendar 2026, following a 5.9% year-over-year decline in Q4 average daily shipments.
FedEx Freight relies on FedEx for specified transition services, including important technology and order-management functions, generally for no longer than two years after the separation.
The post-spin capital structure includes approximately $4.3 billion of indebtedness, while FedEx's retained 19.9% interest must generally be disposed of within 24 months, creating financial and potential share-supply overhangs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.