Fedex Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAir Freight & Logistics Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $255.96median of 6 methods · middle span $202-$556based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $287.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $67.9B Enterprise Value $78.7B Shares Outstanding 239M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary FedEx has entered its post-Freight period with improving package yields, higher volumes, more than $1 billion of fiscal 2026 transformation-related savings, and a capital-lightening strategy. Management targets approximately 8% operating margin, $6 billion of adjusted free cash flow, and 11% return on invested capital by 2029. The outlook remains execution-sensitive because Network 2.0, international improvement, cost control, and profitable premium-market growth must offset wage, transportation, trade-policy, geopolitical, and demand risks. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because the operating trajectory is constructive. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$160.00 Mean target$356.37 High · most bullish analyst$479.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $160.0019% Global trade disruption, weaker shipment demand, wage and purchased-transportation inflation, or slower Network 2.0 and international execution causes revenue growth or adjusted EPS to fall below calendar 2026 guidance and delays progress toward the 2029 margin and cash-flow targets. Base CaseCentral scenario $356.3758% Matches the consensus meanFedEx broadly delivers its calendar 2026 guidance and makes measured progress toward its 2029 objectives through disciplined pricing, premium-market growth, network optimization, and controlled capital spending. Bull CaseUpside scenario $479.0023% FedEx exceeds its calendar 2026 revenue and adjusted-EPS guidance as premium U.S. domestic and international volumes, pricing, Network 2.0, Tricolor, automation, and European improvement accelerate. Faster progress toward the 2029 margin, free-cash-flow, and return targets would support a materially stronger operating outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |