Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCredit Services Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $359.18median of 5 methods · middle span $187-$775based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $209.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 72% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $36B Shares Outstanding 10.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (Farmer Mac) represents a high-quality, wide-moat financial institution with a unique government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) charter. This status grants it a significant and durable funding advantage, allowing it to issue debt at spreads close to U.S. Treasuries. While historically valued as a cyclical agricultural lender, Farmer Mac is undergoing a powerful strategic evolution by diversifying into high-growth rural infrastructure segments, notably renewable energy and broadband infrastructure. This diversification, combined with a highly efficient operating model (operating efficiency ratio near 28%) and a capital-light securitization strategy, supports a robust return on equity (ROE) of 17%. Despite a minor revenue miss in Q1 2026, record business volume approaching $35 billion and strong core earnings growth make the stock highly attractive at current valuations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$254.00 Mean target$257.00 High · most bullish analyst$262.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A severe downturn in the U.S. agricultural economy combined with rising interest rates leads to significant credit migration and defaults, particularly in the Corporate AgFinance segment. Substandard assets rise above 2.2%, forcing substantial increases in loan-loss provisions. The leadership transition under the new CEO results in operational friction or a shift toward a more aggressive, higher-risk capital allocation strategy. Base CaseCentral scenario Steady execution of the core agricultural portfolio combined with continued double-digit growth in rural infrastructure (renewable energy and broadband). The company successfully navigates the CEO transition in July 2026, maintains its net effective spread above 1.15%, and keeps substandard assets well-managed. Valuation multiples expand slightly as the market recognizes the higher-growth, capital-light nature of its infrastructure and securitization platforms. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |