FB Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $48.40median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $52.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $1.7B Shares Outstanding 55.4M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary FB Financial Corp (NYSE: FBK) represents a high-quality regional banking play positioned in premium, high-growth Southeastern markets (primarily Tennessee and North Alabama). The company's customer-centric model, highlighted by its #1 ranking in J.D. Power's Retail Banking Satisfaction Study for the South Central Region, drives strong relationship-based deposit gathering and organic loan growth. FBK has demonstrated superior net interest margin (NIM) defense at 3.94% and excellent cost discipline, resulting in an adjusted efficiency ratio of 54.3%. Backed by a robust capital position and a newly authorized $175 million stock buyback program, the bank is well-equipped to deliver top-tier returns on average assets and compound tangible book value over the long term. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$65.00 Mean target$66.34 High · most bullish analyst$67.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes intense deposit competition from digital and national banks forces FBK to aggressively raise deposit rates, compressing NIM below 3.60%. Concurrently, a broader economic slowdown in the Southeast leads to credit deterioration within the CRE portfolio, requiring elevated provisioning. Mortgage volumes remain depressed due to persistent high long-term rates, and loan growth slows to low-single digits, limiting tangible book value compounding. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes FB Financial successfully navigates a stabilizing interest rate environment, maintaining a full-year NIM of 3.7% to 3.8% in line with management guidance. Mid- to high-single-digit loan and deposit growth is expected to be weighted toward the second half of 2026. Credit quality remains highly stable with net charge-offs staying near historical lows (~2 bps). The bank continues to leverage its strong capital position to execute share repurchases under its $175 million authorization, supporting steady EPS expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |