Fastenal Company Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fastenal Company

FASTNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors

Beta (adjusted)0.81

Intrinsic Value $38.81median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$39based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $50.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $57.6B

Enterprise Value $57.5B

Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date14 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Fastenal entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter daily sales rose 14.7%, net income rose 15.9%, operating margin held at 21.0%, and Digital Footprint sales reached 61.6% of sales. The principal counterweights are a 75-basis-point gross-margin decline, unfavorable price/cost, a quarterly cash-conversion ratio of 69.4%, and elevated 2026 capital spending.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$39.90

Mean target$48.53

High · most bullish analyst$59.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$39.9019%

The downside case assumes that unfavorable price/cost persists, larger-customer mix produces further gross-margin erosion, and working-capital requirements continue to suppress cash conversion. These pressures could outweigh fixed-cost leverage even if reported sales remain positive.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$48.5356%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes continued share gains and digital penetration, but with sales growth moderating from the second quarter's elevated rate and gross margin remaining constrained by price/cost and larger-customer mix.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$59.0025%

The upside case assumes that key-account wins, manufacturing demand, and FMI adoption sustain strong sales growth while SG&A leverage continues to offset customer-mix and price/cost pressure. Evidence supporting this case includes 17.6% contract-sales growth, 16.4% FMI sales growth, and a 21.0% operating margin in the second quarter.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter daily sales increased 14.7%, operating income increased 15.1%, and net income increased 15.9%, indicating strong operating momentum and effective SG&A leverage.
FMI sales increased 16.4% and represented 44.6% of second-quarter sales, while the broader Digital Footprint represented 61.6%, supporting deeper customer integration.
Fastenal maintained low balance-sheet leverage and raised its third-quarter 2026 dividend to $0.26 per share, reflecting continued capacity for shareholder distributions.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter gross margin declined 75 basis points to 44.6%, primarily because of unfavorable net price/cost, with additional pressure from customer mix, transportation costs, and rebates.
Second-quarter operating cash flow represented only 69.4% of net income as strong late-quarter sales growth increased accounts-receivable requirements.
Management expects 2026 net capital investment of $310 million to $330 million, above $230.6 million in 2025, increasing execution and near-term cash-allocation demands.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.