Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

FactSet entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with accelerating organic ASV, retention above 95%, broad AI adoption among its largest customers, and reaffirmed full-year guidance.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$210.00
Mean target$255.06
High · most bullish analyst$340.00
Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions.
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$210.0020%

Subscription momentum weakens, retention falls below the level reported in the third quarter, or higher compensation and technology costs continue to absorb the benefits of revenue and ASV growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$255.0657%
Matches the consensus mean

FactSet delivers within its reaffirmed fiscal-2026 organic ASV guidance while retention remains above 95% and AI adoption supports continued subscription growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$340.0023%

Organic ASV growth remains near or above the third-quarter pace as enterprise relationships deepen, retention stays above 95%, and adoption of FactSet's AI products and partnerships expands into additional workflows.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Organic ASV reached $2,485.6 million at May 31, 2026, increasing $165.0 million or 7.1% year over year, while annual ASV retention remained above 95%.
  • More than 90% of FactSet's top 50 clients used four or more FactSet AI products, indicating meaningful adoption within strategically important accounts.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Adjusted operating income declined 1.7% year over year in the third quarter despite 7.0% organic revenue growth, reflecting higher compensation and technology-related expenses.
  • Strong reported AI-product adoption may not translate into durable incremental ASV if clients consolidate vendors, limit deployments, or resist additional pricing.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.