Fabrinet Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronic Components Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $335.11median of 6 methods · middle span $192-$540based on filings through 26 Jun 2026 Market Price $451.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.2B Enterprise Value $15.8B Shares Outstanding 36.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Fabrinet enters FY2027 with strong operating momentum: Q4 FY2026 revenue reached approximately $1.316 billion, up about 45% year over year, while full-year revenue increased about 36%. Management's Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance of $1.375-$1.425 billion indicates continued rapid expansion. The thesis depends on successful execution of capacity additions and sustained demand for data-center optical and interconnect products. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$635.00 Mean target$732.44 High · most bullish analyst$850.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $635.0020% Data-center demand normalizes more quickly than expected, customer program timing slips or new manufacturing capacity ramps inefficiently. Revenue falls below near-term guidance and valuation compresses as investors reassess the durability of FY2026 growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $732.4456% Matches the consensus meanFabrinet delivers within its Q1 FY2027 guidance range and subsequently transitions from the extraordinary FY2026 growth rate to a still-strong but moderating expansion path. Bull CaseUpside scenario $850.0024% Demand for AI-related data-center connectivity remains exceptionally strong, new programs ramp on schedule and capacity expansion supports growth without material execution friction. Continued operating leverage and durable customer demand justify a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |