F5 Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $295.23median of 6 methods · middle span $200-$343based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $443.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $25.1B Enterprise Value $23.5B Shares Outstanding 57.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary F5 entered its fiscal fourth quarter with strong operating momentum: Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 11%, product revenue grew 19%, and management raised full-year revenue-growth and non-GAAP EPS guidance. The company is also extending its application-delivery and security platform into enterprise AI through the SurePath AI acquisition, the F5 AI Security Platform, and an enhanced AI Gateway. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$300.00 Mean target$436.10 High · most bullish analyst$515.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $300.0018% Q4 revenue falls below the $870 million guidance floor, product growth drops out of double digits as systems comparisons become harder, and software demand weakens from Q3's 7% growth. Additional cyber-incident remediation expense or competitive pressure could compound the execution shortfall. Base CaseCentral scenario $436.1058% Matches the consensus meanF5 delivers within its revised FY2026 ranges of approximately 9%-10% revenue growth and $17.21-$17.33 non-GAAP diluted EPS. Product growth moderates from Q3's 19% rate but remains positive, while AI offerings broaden the platform without yet becoming a separately disclosed revenue driver. Bull CaseUpside scenario $515.0024% F5 finishes FY2026 near or above the upper ends of its revised revenue-growth and EPS ranges, preserves double-digit product growth, and converts its AI Security Platform and enhanced AI Gateway into incremental enterprise demand. Continued systems strength, improving software growth, and durable high margins would support the most favorable outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |