EZCorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCredit Services Beta (adjusted)0.75 Intrinsic Value $55.02median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$242based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 83% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+83%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $2.1B Shares Outstanding 61.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Feb 2000 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EZCORP INC (EZPW) represents a compelling counter-cyclical investment opportunity within the specialty consumer finance sector. The company is experiencing strong operational momentum, driven by robust demand for short-term collateralized pawn loans and elevated gold prices, which bolster its high-margin jewelry scrap operations. EZCORP's strategic expansion in Latin America, combined with disciplined inventory management and a solid cash position, positions it to capture market share and expand margins. Despite trading at a significant valuation discount to its primary peer, FirstCash, EZCORP's accelerating earnings growth and scalable platform offer substantial upside potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$40.80 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0020% A sharp decline in gold prices compresses scrap margins and reduces the value of collateral. Increased regulatory scrutiny or interest rate caps in key states like Texas or countries in Latin America restrict pawn yields. Additionally, dilution from the potential conversion of outstanding convertible notes limits EPS growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $40.8050% Matches the consensus meanEZCORP continues to execute on its core pawn platform, maintaining stable merchandise margins around 35% and steady PLO growth. Latin American operations continue to scale organically, and the company successfully manages its inventory turns. The stock's valuation multiple expands modestly as it demonstrates consistent earnings execution, closing the valuation gap with peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $44.0030% Gold prices remain at record highs, structurally expanding scrap margins above 35%. Rapid store expansion and integration of acquisitions in Latin America drive segment EBITDA growth above 30%. Tightening credit markets in the U.S. accelerate pawn loan demand, leading to double-digit PLO growth and significant operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |