Extra Space Storage Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Extra Space Storage Inc

EXRNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustrySelf-Storage REITs

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $147.47median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $133.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $29.4B

Shares Outstanding 220.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Extra Space Storage entered the second half of 2026 with improving store-level results: second-quarter Core FFO per share increased 4.9%, same-store NOI increased 3.5%, and management raised full-year Core FFO and same-store guidance. Its scale and third-party management platform provide additional earnings channels, but quarter-end occupancy was modestly lower year over year, and the company remains exposed to storage-market competition, financing conditions, bridge-loan underwriting, and joint-venture execution.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$140.00

Mean target$160.00

High · most bullish analyst$202.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$140.0023%

Competitive supply or weaker customer demand pressures rents and occupancy, causing same-store revenue or NOI growth to fall below guidance. Higher financing costs, bridge-loan credit issues, or acquisition and joint-venture execution problems would further weaken Core FFO performance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$160.0056%

Matches the consensus mean

Operating conditions continue to improve gradually, with full-year same-store revenue and NOI growth remaining inside management's July 2026 ranges and Core FFO landing within the $8.25-$8.40 guidance interval. Scale and ancillary businesses support earnings, but modest year-over-year occupancy pressure and financing exposure limit conviction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$202.0021%

Store-sector recovery strengthens beyond the current guidance assumptions, with pricing and occupancy supporting revenue growth while expense control sustains positive operating leverage. Continued expansion of third-party management and bridge lending adds fee and interest income, allowing Core FFO to meet or exceed the upper end of management's 2026 range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 Core FFO per share increased 4.9% year over year to $2.15, while same-store NOI increased 3.5%.
Management raised 2026 Core FFO guidance to $8.25-$8.40 per share and improved its same-store revenue and NOI growth outlooks.
The operating platform had 4,410 owned and/or operated stores and 2,373 third-party or joint-venture managed stores at June 30, 2026, providing substantial scale and ancillary-income opportunities.

Key Investment Risks

Quarter-end same-store occupancy was 94.2%, down from 94.4% one year earlier, showing that the operating recovery was not accompanied by year-over-year occupancy expansion.
Competition from existing and newly supplied storage facilities could pressure rental rates and occupancy.
Credit-market disruption, interest-rate exposure, bridge-loan underwriting, and limited control over joint ventures could constrain growth or reduce returns.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.