Exponent Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $76.51median of 6 methods · middle span $68-$92based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $69.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.3B Shares Outstanding 49.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Exponent Inc. (EXPO) is a premier scientific and engineering consulting firm with a highly defensible competitive moat rooted in its multidisciplinary expertise (90+ technical disciplines) and specialized testing infrastructure. The company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on secular tailwinds, including the rapid integration of AI into physical products, rising safety and regulatory standards, and massive capital deployment into AI infrastructure. Following a period of valuation compression, the stock trades at an attractive entry point relative to its historical multiples, supported by a fortress balance sheet with zero debt, strong free cash flow generation, and a 13-year dividend growth streak. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$72.00 Mean target$84.00 High · most bullish analyst$90.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $65.0020% A slowdown in corporate R&D spending, coupled with persistent wage inflation for elite STEM talent, compresses EBITDA margins. Lumpy litigation cycles and delayed regulatory decisions lead to flat utilization rates and slower-than-expected organic growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $84.0050% Matches the consensus meanExponent delivers on its FY 2026 guidance of high-single digit net revenue growth and EBITDA margins of 27.6% to 28.1%. Steady demand in consumer electronics, energy, and utility sectors offsets localized wage inflation, while the company continues its steady capital return program through dividends and share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $90.0030% Accelerating demand for proactive AI validation, autonomous systems testing, and grid modernization drives double-digit organic revenue growth. Exponent successfully leverages its Phoenix Test & Engineering Center to secure high-margin, large-scale consulting engagements, leading to operating margin expansion and significant EPS beats. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |