Expeditors International Of Washington Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Expeditors International Of Washington Inc

EXPDNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $130.45median of 6 methods · middle span $114-$203based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $187.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $24.4B

Enterprise Value $23.4B

Shares Outstanding 131.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Expeditors entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 32%, operating income increased 41%, diluted EPS increased 51%, and airfreight tonnage increased 14%. Diversification is improving, with Customs, Transcon, Distribution, and Order Management each delivering double-digit revenue growth for a second consecutive quarter. The constructive evidence is balanced by flat year-over-year ocean volume, elevated and geopolitically sensitive airfreight rates, execution risk around the Global Technology restructuring.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.00

Mean target$177.71

High · most bullish analyst$220.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$100.0018%

Airfreight volumes contract as hyperscaler or e-commerce demand weakens, ocean recovery fails to hold, and geopolitical disruptions increase transportation costs faster than Expeditors can reprice customer business. Restructuring savings underperform the approximately $50 million annual expectation or are absorbed by technology investment, causing operating efficiency to fall below 30%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$177.7158%

Matches the consensus mean

Airfreight growth moderates from the second quarter's 14% rate, ocean volumes improve gradually from a flat year-over-year comparison, and customs and other services continue benefiting from supply-chain and tariff complexity. Restructuring savings emerge over subsequent quarters but are partly reinvested in artificial intelligence, technology talent, facilities, and specialized logistics capabilities.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$220.0024%

Airfreight demand remains strong, ocean volumes progress from sequential recovery to sustained year-over-year growth, and diversified customs and logistics products continue delivering double-digit growth. Operating efficiency remains above 32% while the Global Technology restructuring realizes approximately $50 million of annual cost reduction, allowing productivity and margin gains to compound.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Broad second-quarter momentum included 32% revenue growth, 41% operating-income growth, 51% diluted-EPS growth, and 14% airfreight-tonnage growth.
Growth is becoming more diversified: Customs, Transcon, Distribution, and Order Management each achieved double-digit revenue growth for a second consecutive quarter.
Operating efficiency reached 32.2% despite a $25 million restructuring charge, and management expects the Global Technology restructuring to reduce annual costs by approximately $50 million.

Key Investment Risks

Airfreight conditions remain exposed to geopolitical conflict, constrained capacity, elevated rates, fuel costs, routing disruption, hyperscaler demand, and e-commerce volumes.
Ocean container volume was flat year over year in the second quarter; the sequential improvement described by management may not become a durable recovery.
The approximately $50 million annual restructuring benefit is forward-looking, had not yet taken effect in the reported operating-efficiency result, and may be offset by additional technology and artificial-intelligence investment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.