Expand Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $250.76median of 6 methods · middle span $97-$648based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $85.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 192% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+192%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19.9B Enterprise Value $22.7B Shares Outstanding 246.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Expand Energy combines leading North American natural-gas production scale with a proposed expansion into asset-backed marketing through Twin Eagle. The transaction could improve access to demand centers and make cash generation more durable, while the company's recent 4% share-count reduction and additional $1 billion repurchase authorization demonstrate active capital returns. These merits are balanced by commodity-price exposure, regulatory and closing uncertainty, and the risk that projected transaction synergies and commercial cash flows are delayed or not achieved. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$93.00 Mean target$125.52 High · most bullish analyst$160.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $93.0020% Regulatory approvals or closing conditions delay the Twin Eagle transaction, or post-close integration, customer retention and synergy realization fall short. Commodity-price volatility then leaves earnings and cash returns more exposed to the upstream cycle than the strategic plan anticipates. Base CaseCentral scenario $125.5255% Matches the consensus meanTwin Eagle closes and strengthens Expand Energy's commercial reach, but benefits phase in over several years and remain partly offset by natural-gas price cyclicality and integration costs. Operational scale and capital returns support the equity, while execution uncertainty limits conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $160.0025% Twin Eagle closes on schedule, customer relationships are retained, the combined platform approaches approximately 14 Bcf/d of marketed volume, and Expand Energy realizes at least $150 million of annual synergies by year-end 2028 while progressing toward its $750 million annual incremental marketing and commercial free-cash-flow target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |