Exelon Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

Exelon Corporation

EXCNASDAQ

SectorUtilities

IndustryElectric Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.53

Intrinsic Value $47.13median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$71based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $40.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $41.7B

Enterprise Value $90.5B

Shares Outstanding 1B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Exelon offers comparatively visible regulated-utility growth: management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91, expects annualized EPS growth near the upper end of 5%-7% through 2029, and projects 7.9% rate-base growth supported by a $41.7 billion four-year capital program. Reliability remains strong, and 86% of planned 2026 debt financing had been executed by the second-quarter report. Offsetting these merits are regulatory execution risk, affordability pressure, substantial ongoing financing needs, and exposure to cyber, physical-security, extreme-weather, supply-chain, and capital-market disruptions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$41.00

Mean target$49.18

High · most bullish analyst$58.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$41.0023%

Material rate-case disallowances, worsening customer-affordability pressure, higher financing costs, or weaker reliability delay capital recovery and push earnings below guidance. Physical-security, cybersecurity, extreme-weather, supply-chain, or third-party generation-adequacy disruptions could compound the downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$49.1858%

Matches the consensus mean

Exelon delivers 2026 adjusted operating EPS within the reaffirmed $2.81-$2.91 range, completes its financing plan, and receives broadly constructive but not uniformly full regulatory recovery. Rate-base expansion supports durable mid-single-digit earnings growth, while affordability initiatives and customer protections help preserve regulatory relationships.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$58.0019%

Regulatory outcomes support planned investment, all utilities sustain top-quartile reliability, financing is completed without material cost escalation, and incremental transmission demand is protected by enforceable large-load agreements. These conditions would support earnings growth near the top of management's 5%-7% range through 2029.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91 and annualized operating-EPS growth near the upper end of 5%-7% through 2029.
A $41.7 billion four-year capital plan is expected to produce 7.9% rate-base growth, while every utility is projected to maintain top-quartile reliability.
Exelon had executed approximately 86% of planned 2026 debt financings and reported more than $1 billion of customer protections under transmission security agreements for large new loads.

Key Investment Risks

Earnings and capital recovery depend heavily on outcomes and timing across multiple state and federal regulatory proceedings, including BGE's pending Maryland electric-distribution case.
Higher energy-supply costs and customer-affordability pressure may increase political and regulatory resistance even when supply costs are outside the utilities' direct control.
The investment program remains exposed to capital-market instability, credit-rating pressure, supply-chain inflation, cybersecurity, physical-security events, extreme weather, and third-party generation shortfalls.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.