Excelerate Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $29.16median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$39based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $32.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.6B Enterprise Value $4.2B Shares Outstanding 113.4M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) offers a unique, less capital-intensive entry point into the downstream LNG regasification and import infrastructure market. While the company benefits from highly stable, long-term take-or-pay contracts (anchoring over 90% of adjusted EBITDA) and a successful Caribbean expansion via the Jamaica acquisition, near-term growth is constrained by geopolitical headwinds. The delay of the Iraq Integrated LNG terminal from 2026 to 2027 and regional conflicts in the Middle East have forced a downward revision of the full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Consequently, the stock is rated a Hold as investors balance its attractive valuation against elevated geopolitical risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$43.62 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is triggered by prolonged geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, leading to further delays in the Iraq terminal beyond 2027 and escalating force majeure impacts from QatarEnergy supply disruptions. Increased operating, insurance, and transportation costs compress margins, while faster-than-expected global decarbonization policies restrict the long-term contract pipeline for fossil-fuel infrastructure, leading to multiple compression. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Excelerate successfully integrates its Jamaica acquisition to establish a highly profitable Caribbean hub-and-spoke LNG distribution model. The newly delivered FSRU Acadia's interim nine-month charter to Jordan's NEPCO partially offsets the delayed startup of the Iraq terminal, generating approximately $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA for 2026. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA lands within the revised guidance range of $480 million to $510 million, and the company maintains its quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |