Exagen Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Services Beta (adjusted)1.67 Intrinsic Value $3.84median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $7.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $191.1M Enterprise Value $189.4M Shares Outstanding 25.7M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Exagen Inc. is executing a successful operational turnaround under CEO John Aballi, characterized by double-digit revenue growth and steady expansion of its AVISE CTD test volumes and average selling prices (ASP). The company's proprietary Cell-Bound Complement Activation Products (CB-CAPs) technology provides a highly differentiated diagnostic solution for complex autoimmune diseases like systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). While Exagen remains loss-making and continues to burn cash, its improving gross margins (holding near 59%) and narrowing adjusted EBITDA losses demonstrate strong operating leverage. At current valuation levels, the stock offers a compelling risk-reward profile as the company progresses toward sustained profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$8.57 High · most bullish analyst$10.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0020% Slower-than-expected ramp in ASP, loss of key billing accounts, or adverse reimbursement decisions from Medicare and third-party payors. Continued high cash burn forces a highly dilutive equity raise or covenant breaches under its Perceptive Term Loan Facility. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.0050% Exagen delivers on its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $70 million to $73 million, supported by steady 10% volume growth and incremental ASP improvements. Operating expenses are kept in check, and the company's existing cash reserves of $21.5 million successfully fund operations for the next 12 months as it approaches EBITDA break-even. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.0030% Accelerated adoption of AVISE CTD tests combined with rapid ASP expansion driven by successful payer negotiations and revenue cycle management. The company achieves positive adjusted EBITDA and cash flow ahead of schedule, eliminating the need for dilutive equity financing. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |