Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc

EVLVNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySecurity & Protection Services

Beta (adjusted)1.55

Intrinsic Value $7.33median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $4.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 56% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+56%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $847.2M

Enterprise Value $823.2M

Shares Outstanding 184M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Evolv Technologies is successfully transitioning to a highly predictable, subscription-first physical security model. Strong Q1 2026 results, highlighted by a 45% year-over-year revenue increase and raised full-year guidance, demonstrate robust demand across key verticals such as Education, Healthcare, and Sports. The company's strategic shift in contract manufacturing and the introduction of high-margin products like Evolv eXpedite are set to accelerate ARR expansion and drive the company toward sustained profitability.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$10.13

High · most bullish analyst$10.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5.7215%

Geopolitical or macroeconomic headwinds delay security spending in key public sectors, while intense competition in AI-based screening pressures pricing, limiting ARR growth and delaying the timeline to profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$10.1360%

Matches the consensus mean

Evolv achieves its raised 2026 revenue guidance of $175M to $180M and exits the year with ARR between $145M and $150M. Steady expansion in core verticals and disciplined cost management support a gradual path to GAAP profitability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$15.2225%

Rapid adoption of Evolv eXpedite and Express Gen 2 drives pure subscription mix above expectations, leading to accelerated ARR growth and operating leverage that pushes Adjusted EBITDA margins well into the double digits.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong top-line momentum with 45% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026.
Raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $175M - $180M.
Expanding product portfolio with Evolv eXpedite achieving SAFETY Act Designation.
Transition to direct fulfillment and contract manufacturing strategy accelerating ARR expansion.

Key Investment Risks

The company remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis.
High reliance on public sector and municipal budgets (e.g., schools, hospitals) which can be subject to funding delays.
Potential pricing pressure from emerging competitors in the AI-based weapons detection space.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant drop in the pure subscription model mix below guided levels.
Failure to meet the revised full-year 2026 revenue guidance range of $175M to $180M.
Loss or downgrading of critical SAFETY Act designations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.