Evolution Petroleum Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $4.99median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $3.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $143.4M Enterprise Value $193.8M Shares Outstanding 34.3M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Evolution Petroleum (EPM) is transitioning from a conservative, low-leverage dividend producer to an active mineral and royalty acquisition platform. While this shift expands its long-term asset base and exposure to high-quality plays like the Haynesville-Bossier and SCOOP/STACK, it has introduced higher leverage and potential dilution risks. Recent FQ3 2026 results missed expectations due to weather-related downtime and significant unrealized hedge losses, leading to a net loss of $8.9 million. Although the company maintained its consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share (yielding ~12%), the increased debt of $56.5 million and low cash reserves of $2.6 million raise concerns regarding payout sustainability if commodity prices soften. Consequently, a Hold rating is recommended until production normalizes and leverage stabilizes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$4.94 High · most bullish analyst$6.25 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.5015% Prolonged commodity price weakness or persistent operational downtime at key fields (such as Delhi or Barnett) pressures cash flow. High leverage forces the company to utilize its $30 million ATM program, diluting shareholders, or ultimately leads to a reduction in the quarterly dividend payout. Base CaseCentral scenario $4.5065% Production rebounds in FQ4 2026 to over 7,000 BOEPD as winter-related downtime resolves, TexMex workovers add ~100 net BOEPD, and new royalty wells begin flowing. The $0.12 quarterly dividend remains supported by operating cash flows, and leverage is gradually reduced as capital expenditures are kept disciplined within the $4.0–$6.0 million range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.2525% Stronger oil prices and successful integration of recent Haynesville-Bossier mineral and royalty acquisitions drive a significant rebound in free cash flow, providing robust coverage for the high-yield $0.12 quarterly dividend and enabling rapid debt paydown. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |