Evolent Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Technology Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $3.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $383.3M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 110.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Evolent Health is navigating a transitional phase in 2026, marked by a strategic pivot toward high-value specialty care (oncology and cardiology) and AI-driven clinical solutions. Despite near-term revenue headwinds from exchange membership declines and the divestiture of Evolent Care Partners, the company's core Performance Suite continues to expand. Successful on-time launches with major payers like Aetna and Highmark, combined with robust demand for complex specialty care solutions amid rising medical costs, position Evolent for sequential EBITDA improvement and long-term margin expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$5.96 High · most bullish analyst$8.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.0020% Elevated medical cost trends persist, keeping the MER above 94%. Continued erosion of individual ACA and Medicaid membership, combined with integration delays of new technology platforms, pressures margins, forcing Adjusted EBITDA to the low end of guidance ($110 million) or below. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.9650% Matches the consensus meanEvolent successfully executes on its reiterated 2026 guidance, delivering revenue between $2.4B and $2.6B and Adjusted EBITDA between $110M and $140M. The MER stabilizes around 93%, and sequential quarterly improvements are realized in the second half of the year as new launches mature. Bull CaseUpside scenario $8.0030% Accelerated adoption of AI-driven specialty care solutions and faster-than-expected ramp-up of the Aetna and Highmark contracts drive revenue toward the high end of the $2.4B–$2.6B guidance. Effective utilization management improves the Medical Expense Ratio (MER) below 92%, leading to Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $140 million. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |