EVgo Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)2.25 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $396.3M Enterprise Value $571.7M Shares Outstanding 314.5M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EVgo is a leading pure-play public fast-charging network in the United States, uniquely positioned to benefit from structural EV adoption. Unlike peers focused on hardware sales, EVgo's business model centers on recurring charging network revenue, which is showing high-quality growth and improving unit economics. With network throughput scaling, gross margins expanding, and a clear path toward adjusted EBITDA profitability supported by a robust liquidity profile (including an amended DOE loan), EVgo represents a compelling growth opportunity with favorable risk-reward asymmetry. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$4.25 High · most bullish analyst$7.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.0020% The bear case is driven by a slower-than-expected pace of EV adoption, persistent operating losses, and delays in stall deployment due to supply chain or regulatory bottlenecks. Intense competition from automaker networks and other public charging providers could compress margins and reduce pricing power. If the company fails to reach adjusted EBITDA profitability, it may require dilutive capital raises, pressuring the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario $4.2550% Matches the consensus meanThe base case projects steady execution of the 2026 stall buildout (1,400 to 1,650 new stalls) and revenue growth in line with the reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of $410 million to $470 million. Adjusted EBITDA approaches breakeven, and the company successfully leverages its partnerships with GM, Uber, and retail site hosts. Valuation multiples stabilize as the market recognizes the sustainability of EVgo's infrastructure-led recurring revenue model. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.0030% The bull case assumes accelerated EV adoption, high utilization rates of newly deployed stalls, and rapid expansion of NACS connectors driving massive throughput from non-Tesla and Tesla drivers alike. Under this scenario, EVgo achieves positive adjusted EBITDA ahead of expectations, leading to a significant valuation re-rating. Daily throughput per stall rises above 350 kWh, and forward Price-to-Sales multiples expand toward 2.2x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |