Everspin Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.62 Intrinsic Value $7.73median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $18.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 59% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-59%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $454.1M Enterprise Value $411.1M Shares Outstanding 23.7M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Everspin Technologies is the undisputed leader in Magnetoresistive RAM (MRAM) solutions, uniquely positioned to capture high-reliability, mission-critical sockets across industrial, aerospace, defense, and automotive markets. The company's recent $40 million U.S. defense subcontract provides a highly profitable, non-product revenue stream over the next 30 months that is not yet fully reflected in management's near-term guidance. Despite ongoing patent litigation with Avalanche Technology, Everspin's strong balance sheet ($40.5M cash, minimal debt), improving product sales momentum, and upcoming inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index present a compelling growth opportunity with significant valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.50 Mean target$24.67 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.7820% Prolonged patent litigation with Avalanche Technology leads to elevated operating expenses and potential injunctions or royalty obligations on STT-MRAM products. Commercial STT-MRAM adoption remains slow, and macroeconomic weakness dampens industrial automation and transportation capital expenditure. Base CaseCentral scenario $14.3350% Steady recovery in industrial demand, particularly in Japan, alongside linear or slightly milestone-uneven recognition of the $40 million defense contract. Product sales grow at a double-digit pace, and litigation expenses remain manageable, allowing the company to maintain non-GAAP profitability. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.5030% Rapid milestone execution on the $40 million defense contract combined with accelerated commercial adoption of 1Gb STT-MRAM devices in enterprise SSDs and RAID controllers. Gross margins expand toward 55% due to high foundry utilization, and the Avalanche patent litigation is settled favorably with minimal financial impact. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |