Eversource Energy Dossier
|
SectorUtilities IndustryElectric Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $68.97median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$74based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $64.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $24.2B Enterprise Value $51.5B Shares Outstanding 379.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Eversource offers visible regulated-utility investment growth, with a $26.5 billion 2026-2030 capital plan supporting an indicated 8.3% rate-base CAGR and management's 5%-7% long-term adjusted EPS-growth objective. Completion of the Aquarion sale also provided approximately $1.7 billion of adjusted net equity proceeds designated for debt reduction. These strengths are balanced by the material sensitivity of transmission earnings to regulatory decisions: the 2026 adjusted EPS outlook was reduced following the New England transmission ROE order and stood at $4.57-$4.72 after the second quarter. Residual offshore-wind obligations, financing demands and execution of a large capital program add uncertainty. The resulting risk-reward supports a Hold rather than a more directional recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$52.00 Mean target$73.75 High · most bullish analyst$85.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $58.0023% Adverse transmission ROE outcomes persist, utility investment recovery is delayed and financing costs absorb more of the benefit from rate-base growth. Additional offshore-wind-related obligations or regulatory disallowances further pressure results, causing 2026 guidance to fall below its reaffirmed lower bound and weakening confidence in the long-term growth range. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.7558% Matches the consensus meanEversource delivers 2026 adjusted EPS within the reaffirmed $4.57-$4.72 range and subsequently compounds earnings near the middle of management's 5%-7% long-term range. The $26.5 billion utility plan broadly supports the projected rate-base expansion, while debt reduction from the Aquarion proceeds partly offsets financing pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $88.0019% Constructive regulatory outcomes, effective deployment of the utility capital plan and balance-sheet improvement following the Aquarion sale allow adjusted EPS growth to reach the upper half of management's 5%-7% range by 2028. Transmission returns stabilize, planned rate-base additions enter service on schedule and no material new offshore-wind charges emerge. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |