EverQuote Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Media & Services Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $36.27median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$52based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $19.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 82% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+82%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $704.1M Enterprise Value $511.8M Shares Outstanding 35.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EverQuote is executing a powerful operational turnaround, driven by a cyclical recovery in the property and casualty (P&C) insurance market and structural efficiency gains from its AI-powered traffic engine. Following severe headwinds in 2022-2023 when auto insurers slashed marketing budgets, carriers are returning to digital customer acquisition channels. EverQuote's Q1 2026 results demonstrate significant operating leverage, with revenue growing 15% year-over-year to $190.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA rising 30% to a record $29.3 million. Backed by a debt-free balance sheet with $178.5 million in cash and an active share buyback program, EverQuote is well-positioned to capture market share and progress toward its long-term target of $1 billion in annual revenue. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.00 Mean target$29.60 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.00 A resurgence in loss ratios forces major auto insurance carriers to abruptly pull back on marketing spend. Increased competition in digital advertising channels drives up customer acquisition costs, compressing Variable Marketing Margins and stalling progress toward the $1 billion revenue target. Base CaseCentral scenario $26.20 P&C carriers continue their steady, phased return to digital marketing channels. Auto vertical revenue grows at a mid-teens rate, while home and renters insurance maintains steady double-digit growth. Adjusted EBITDA margins stabilize around 15-16%, supported by disciplined cash operating expense management. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.00 Carriers accelerate digital customer acquisition spending faster than anticipated, driving auto vertical growth above 25% YoY. Concurrently, non-auto verticals (home and renters) scale rapidly, and AI-driven traffic optimization expands the Adjusted EBITDA margin beyond 18%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |