Evaxion A/S ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Evaxion A/S ADR

EVAXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.49

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $3.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $28.7M

Enterprise Value $10.8M

Shares Outstanding 9M diluted

Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Evaxion A/S is a clinical-stage TechBio pioneer leveraging its proprietary AI-Immunology™ platform to revolutionize vaccine development in oncology and infectious diseases. By utilizing machine learning to decode the human immune system, Evaxion significantly compresses target discovery and drug design timelines. The investment thesis is anchored by strong clinical validation (including unprecedented Phase 2 data for lead asset EVX-01), a high-profile out-licensing deal with MSD (Merck & Co.) for EVX-B3, and an extended cash runway into H2 2027. With key clinical, regulatory, and platform expansion milestones slated for the second half of 2026, Evaxion presents a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile for biotechnology investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.00

Mean target$11.25

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.0020%

The bear case reflects risks inherent to early-stage biotech. The 3-year EVX-01 data shows declining durability or safety concerns, hindering partnership efforts. Regulatory filings for EVX-04 face unexpected delays, pushing clinical readiness into 2027. In the absence of new non-dilutive partnership revenue, the cash burn pressures the balance sheet, forcing dilutive equity raises under the ATM program or risking non-compliance with Nasdaq's minimum stockholders' equity requirement under the Mandatory Panel Monitor.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$11.2555%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case projects steady execution of the 2026 strategic roadmap. Evaxion releases positive 3-year Phase 2 data for EVX-01 in H2 2026, confirming its competitive immunogenicity profile. The company achieves clinical readiness for EVX-04 in AML by year-end and submits the regulatory application. Operational cash burn is tightly managed at approximately $14 million, preserving the cash runway into H2 2027. Partnership discussions continue to progress, maintaining steady investor confidence and aligning with consensus Wall Street price targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$16.0025%

The bull case assumes rapid clinical progression and highly favorable data readouts. The upcoming 3-year Phase 2 data for EVX-01 demonstrates durable, long-term efficacy in advanced melanoma, triggering a lucrative global co-development partnership. Simultaneously, EVX-04 successfully enters Phase 1 clinical trials for AML with strong initial safety profiles, and MSD exercises further options (e.g., for Gonorrhea candidate EVX-B2), bringing in substantial non-dilutive milestone payments. The AI-Immunology platform successfully expands into autoimmune diseases, attracting multiple high-value target discovery collaborations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary AI-Immunology™ platform validated by the Galien Foundation (Prix Bridges Award and Prix Galien UK Award) and clinically proven to achieve 86% target precision.
High-profile validation through MSD's out-licensing of EVX-B3, providing up to $592 million in potential milestone payments plus royalties.
Extended cash runway into the second half of 2027, supported by disciplined financial management and an expected 2026 operational cash burn of ~$14 million.
Highly scalable platform with near-term expansion into autoimmune diseases and multiple vaccine modalities (peptides, proteins, DNA, and RNA).

Key Investment Risks

Clinical development risk, particularly surrounding the upcoming 3-year Phase 2 data readout for lead asset EVX-01.
Dependence on securing external partnerships to fund late-stage clinical trials and commercialization.
Regulatory hurdles and potential delays in achieving clinical readiness for the EVX-04 AML program.
Nasdaq listing compliance risk under the Mandatory Panel Monitor if stockholders' equity falls below the $2.5 million threshold.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of EVX-01 to demonstrate durable efficacy or acceptable safety in its 3-year Phase 2 clinical trial extension.
Inability to submit the regulatory application for EVX-04 by the end of 2026.
A material acceleration in cash burn that shortens the cash runway to less than 12 months without securing non-dilutive funding.
Receiving a Nasdaq delisting determination due to failure to maintain minimum stockholders' equity.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.