EuroDry Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

EuroDry Ltd

EDRYNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryMarine Transportation

Beta (adjusted)0.79

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $55.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $177.2M

Shares Outstanding 2.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

EuroDry Ltd. represents a compelling turnaround play in the dry bulk shipping sector. After returning to profitability in Q1 2026, driven by a 101.1% year-over-year increase in average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates to $14,416 per day, the company is well-positioned to benefit from a firming dry bulk market. EuroDry is actively modernizing and expanding its fleet from 11 to 15 vessels by 2028 through a strategic newbuilding program consisting of two Ultramax and two eco Kamsarmax bulk carriers. Trading at a significant discount to its net asset value (NAV) with a lean corporate structure managed by Eurobulk, EuroDry offers substantial upside as the dry bulk cycle strengthens.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$33.33

High · most bullish analyst$41.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0015%

A global economic slowdown or trade disruptions depress dry bulk demand, causing the Baltic Dry Index to collapse. TCE rates drop below operating cash break-even levels, and the company faces financing difficulties or dilutive equity raises to fund its $74 million Kamsarmax newbuilding commitments.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.3360%

Matches the consensus mean

Dry bulk market rates remain firm with Ultramax and Kamsarmax rates stabilizing between $15,000 and $18,000 per day. EuroDry maintains high fleet utilization (~99%) and successfully integrates its newbuildings starting in 2027, leading to steady earnings growth and gradual deleveraging.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$41.0025%

Global dry bulk demand accelerates, driven by resilient Chinese grain and coal imports, pushing TCE rates above $20,000 per day. EuroDry successfully delivers its four newbuildings on schedule, expanding its carrying capacity to over 1 million dwt, while maintaining high fleet utilization and generating exceptional free cash flow.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Sharp operational turnaround with Q1 2026 net income of $0.4 million compared to a net loss of $4.0 million in Q1 2025.
Clear growth pipeline with four eco-friendly newbuildings scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2028, expanding the fleet from 11 to 15 vessels.
Highly efficient corporate structure and low G&A expenses per vessel through its management agreement with affiliate Eurobulk Ltd.
Significant valuation discount relative to estimated net asset value (NAV) and peer multiples.

Key Investment Risks

High systematic exposure to the highly volatile and cyclical dry bulk shipping market.
Capital commitment risk associated with the $74 million order for two Kamsarmax newbuildings, which requires a mix of debt and equity financing.
Limited stock liquidity and micro-cap discount, which may restrict institutional investor interest.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in one-year time charter rates for Ultramax and Kamsarmax vessels below $10,000 per day.
Inability to secure favorable debt financing for the newbuilding program, leading to highly dilutive equity offerings.
Severe delays or cancellations in the delivery of the newbuilding vessels from the shipyards.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.