Ethan Allen Interiors Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHomefurnishings Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $11.96median of 5 methods · middle span $11-$19based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $21.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $533.3M Enterprise Value $459.7M Shares Outstanding 25.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETD) continues to demonstrate operational resilience and robust balance sheet strength, characterized by zero debt and a solid cash position of $181 million. However, the company faces persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including high inflation, housing market softness, and significant tariff exposures ($15 million to $20 million annually). While its high-dividend yield remains attractive and supported by cash flows, near-term growth is constrained, leading to a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$24.00 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.0015% Prolonged housing market stagnation, failure to renew the U.S. State Department contract, and escalating tariff costs further compress operating margins, forcing production capacity cuts and threatening the sustainability of the high dividend payout. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.0060% Matches the consensus meanEthan Allen maintains stable retail written orders and manages cost structures effectively, offsetting minor revenue declines. The company continues to pay its regular quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, supported by its debt-free balance sheet, while trading near its fair value amid a flat-to-soft consumer discretionary environment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $27.0025% A rapid recovery in the U.S. housing market combined with successful mitigation of tariff pressures allows Ethan Allen to leverage its vertically integrated model, driving a strong rebound in wholesale written orders and expanding operating margins back toward historical double-digit levels. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |