Essex Property Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Residential Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $263.37median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $269.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.6B Enterprise Value $24.9B Shares Outstanding 64.4M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Essex reported resilient second-quarter operations, including $4.08 of Core FFO per diluted share, 2.7% same-property revenue growth, 2.6% same-property NOI growth and 96.3% financial occupancy. Management raised the full-year Core FFO midpoint to $16.14 and the same-property NOI growth midpoint to 2.8%. These improvements support durable income and modest fundamental upside, but the issuer's investor-relations stock quote of $284.03 on August 28, 2026 already reflects much of that resilience. A Hold balances improving guidance, strong liquidity and a 32-year record of annual dividend increases against West Coast concentration, operating-cost pressure, interest-rate sensitivity and potential regulatory or litigation costs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$239.00 Mean target$304.35 High · most bullish analyst$352.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $239.0018% Occupancy falls, concessions or delinquencies rise, and expense or financing pressure pushes same-property NOI growth below guidance. West Coast economic and regulatory exposure, together with unexpected legal or capital costs, compresses the valuation despite the dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $304.3558% Matches the consensus meanResults remain within revised 2026 guidance, with same-property revenue and NOI growth near management's 2.8% midpoints and occupancy near recent levels. The scenario assumes a stable income valuation and modest appreciation from the August 28 investor-relations quote. Bull CaseUpside scenario $352.0024% Sustained Northern California momentum, stable occupancy and continued expense control lift full-year results toward or above the upper end of guidance. Core FFO growth, approximately $1.4 billion of reported liquidity and the established dividend record support a valuation rerating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |