Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $25.37median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.6B Enterprise Value $8.4B Shares Outstanding 217.7M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) is a premier, high-growth net lease REIT specializing in service-oriented and experience-based single-tenant commercial properties. By targeting middle-market operators who have limited access to traditional capital markets, EPRT secures highly favorable lease terms, including long durations (14.6-year WALT) and robust annual rent escalators (~1.7%). The company's disciplined underwriting, relationship-driven sourcing, and conservative leverage profile (3.5x net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre) position it to deliver sector-leading AFFO growth and stable dividend income, even amidst macroeconomic headwinds. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$37.06 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.00 Persistent high interest rates increase borrowing costs and compress investment spreads. Idiosyncratic tenant bankruptcies in vulnerable discretionary segments (e.g., casual dining, entertainment) lead to a modest decline in occupancy and higher credit losses, slowing AFFO growth to the low single digits. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.06 Matches the consensus meanEPRT successfully executes its revised 2026 guidance, delivering AFFO per share of $2.00 to $2.05 (7-8% growth) and deploying $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion in acquisitions. Occupancy remains stable at ~99.7%, and unit-level rent coverage holds healthy at 3.5x. The stock trades at a reasonable forward P/AFFO multiple of ~16.5x, reflecting its superior growth profile relative to net lease peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.00 EPRT accelerates its capital deployment beyond the raised $1.5 billion guidance at highly accretive cap rates (above 7.7%), supported by rapid settlement of its $541 million in forward equity. Strong middle-market credit performance keeps credit losses well below historical averages, while falling interest rates compress cap rates, driving significant multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |