Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryElectrical Components and Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value $43.62median of 4 methods · middle span $36-$51based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $62.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $178.6M Enterprise Value $157.4M Shares Outstanding 2.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) presents a compelling investment opportunity within the defense electronics sector. Despite a slight year-to-date revenue decline of 5% due to timing shifts in deliverables, the company's underlying fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Espey boasts a robust funded backlog of $137.1 million (representing over 3x its FY2025 revenue) and has demonstrated significant margin expansion, with gross margins rising to 37% in Q3 FY2026. Supported by a debt-free balance sheet with $46.66 million in cash and investment securities, the company is well-positioned to convert its massive backlog into highly profitable revenue as government contract execution accelerates. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$65.00 Mean target$65.00 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged delays in government contract funding, persistent customer concentration risks (where a loss of a key program severely impacts the top line), and a failure to secure new orders to replenish the backlog. Under this scenario, revenue would contract, and fixed-cost under-absorption would compress operating margins back toward historical averages. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that Espey successfully executes on its $137.1 million backlog, converting it to revenue over the next 24 to 36 months. Operating margins are expected to remain strong at approximately 25% due to a favorable product mix and disciplined cost controls. Revenue and net income for full-year fiscal 2026 are projected to exceed fiscal 2025 levels, driven by accelerated shipments in the second half of the fiscal year. Bull CaseUpside scenario Sustained high-margin defense program execution converting the record $137.1 million backlog into accelerated revenue, supplemented by further Navy-funded facility expansions and capital equipment upgrades. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |