ESAB Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMetal Fabrication Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $85.46median of 6 methods · middle span $73-$96based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $67.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.2B Enterprise Value $6.3B Shares Outstanding 61.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ESAB Corp is successfully executing its transition into a premier industrial compounder, leveraging its high-margin, resilient consumables franchise to fund strategic, high-growth acquisitions. The recent completion of the Eddyfi Technologies acquisition in June 2026 marks a pivotal expansion into advanced non-destructive testing and inspection, structurally lifting the company's margin profile and reducing cyclicality. While near-term integration costs, elevated leverage, and geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East present temporary margin pressure, ESAB's robust cash conversion and disciplined operational playbook (EBXai) support a strong deleveraging path and long-term earnings acceleration. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$131.18 High · most bullish analyst$154.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $100.00 Persistent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and integration delays with Eddyfi lead to prolonged margin compression. Organic sales growth remains negative, and elevated leverage limits financial flexibility, causing valuation multiples to compress. Base CaseCentral scenario $131.18 Matches the consensus meanESAB achieves its reiterated full-year 2026 guidance with core organic sales growth recovering to the 2% to 4% range. Eddyfi integrates smoothly, and pricing actions successfully offset Middle East freight and material cost pressures, bringing net leverage back below 3.0x by year-end. Bull CaseUpside scenario $154.00 Rapid integration of Eddyfi Technologies drives immediate margin expansion and cross-selling synergies, while a swift rebound in the global industrial cycle accelerates organic sales growth. Deleveraging occurs ahead of schedule, allowing the company to resume bolt-on M&A and increase shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |