Ero Copper Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryCopper Beta (adjusted)1.45 Intrinsic Value $72.76median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$103based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $35.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 104% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+104%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.7B Enterprise Value $4.2B Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ero Copper Corp. represents a high-margin, high-growth copper and gold producer transitioning from a heavy capital expenditure cycle to a phase of significant cash generation. The successful ramp-up of the Tucumã mine, combined with stable operations at Caraíba and Xavantina, positions the company to deliver up to 20% copper production growth in 2026. Furthermore, the long-term optionality provided by the world-class Furnas Copper-Gold Project offers a compelling growth pipeline that is currently undervalued relative to mid-tier peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$35.87 High · most bullish analyst$40.60 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.0015% Operational delays in the Tucumã tailings filtration expansion, persistent inflationary pressures on C1 cash costs, or a sharp decline in global copper prices due to macroeconomic headwinds limit free cash flow generation and delay the development timeline of the Furnas project. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.8760% Matches the consensus meanEro Copper successfully meets its 2026 consolidated copper production guidance of 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes and gold production of 40,000 to 50,000 ounces. Unit costs decline sequentially in H2 2026 as processed grades improve at Caraíba, and the balance sheet continues to deleverage toward a net debt leverage ratio below 1.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.6025% Sustained high copper prices driven by structural deficits, electrification, and AI data center demand, combined with flawless execution of the Tucumã tailings expansion and early commercialization of the Furnas project, drive rapid deleveraging and substantial free cash flow yields exceeding 12%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |