Erasca Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Erasca Inc

ERASNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.76

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $14.58Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $5.1B

Enterprise Value $5.1B

Shares Outstanding 308.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Erasca is a high-potential, clinical-stage precision oncology company singularly focused on targeting the RAS/MAPK pathway. The company's lead asset, ERAS-0015 (a pan-RAS molecular glue), has demonstrated highly encouraging preliminary Phase 1 efficacy with a 62% objective response rate in RAS-driven G12X NSCLC and a favorable safety profile compared to competitors. While a major intellectual property dispute with Revolution Medicines and a clinical safety event (one patient death) caused a severe stock correction in late April 2026, the company's robust cash position of $408.5 million (runway into H2 2028) and recent clinical collaborations with Merck and Tango Therapeutics provide a strong foundation for recovery. At current levels, the risk/reward is highly attractive for long-term biotech investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$20.00

Mean target$23.30

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$20.0020%

Revolution Medicines successfully obtains an injunction or unfavorable court ruling that halts or severely restricts the development of ERAS-0015. Alternatively, safety concerns escalate with additional severe pneumonitis cases, or ERAS-4001 fails to show meaningful clinical activity in its H2 2026 readout, forcing the company to rely on earlier-stage pipeline assets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$23.3050%

Matches the consensus mean

ERAS-0015 continues to advance through monotherapy expansion and combination cohorts with manageable safety and consistent efficacy. The IP litigation with Revolution Medicines remains ongoing without near-term injunctions, allowing clinical development to proceed. ERAS-4001 demonstrates acceptable safety and initial efficacy in H2 2026, supporting a moderate valuation recovery.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.0030%

ERAS-0015 is validated as a best-in-class pan-RAS molecular glue with superior tolerability (only 2% Grade 3+ rash) and high efficacy in combination trials with Keytruda and panitumumab. The IP dispute with Revolution Medicines is settled favorably or dismissed, and ERAS-4001 delivers strong monotherapy data in H2 2026, positioning Erasca as a premier partner in precision oncology.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong preliminary Phase 1 monotherapy data for ERAS-0015 showing a 62% ORR in RAS-driven G12X NSCLC and up to 75% in docetaxel-eligible patients.
Robust balance sheet with $408.5 million in cash and marketable securities, providing a runway into the second half of 2028.
Strategic clinical collaborations established with Merck (Keytruda combination) and Tango Therapeutics (vopimetostat combination) validating the pipeline's potential.
Differentiated pipeline with ERAS-4001 (pan-KRAS inhibitor) sparing HRAS and NRAS to potentially enable a wider therapeutic window.

Key Investment Risks

Ongoing high-stakes intellectual property and trade secret litigation with competitor Revolution Medicines over ERAS-0015.
Clinical safety risks, highlighted by a treatment-related death (pneumonitis) in the AURORAS-1 trial.
Active securities class action lawsuits (e.g., Cheng v. Erasca) stemming from the late-April 2026 stock collapse.
High execution and binary clinical trial risk typical of early-stage, pre-revenue biotechnology companies.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A court-ordered preliminary injunction halting the development or commercialization of ERAS-0015.
FDA clinical hold on the AURORAS-1 trial due to safety concerns or additional treatment-related deaths.
Failure of ERAS-4001 to demonstrate clinical activity or acceptable safety in the H2 2026 BOREALIS-1 readout.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.