Equity Residential Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryMulti-Family Residential REITs Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $64.08median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $63.66Price as of 17 Aug 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $24.6B Enterprise Value $32.8B Shares Outstanding 383.6M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Equity Residential completed its combination with AvalonBay on August 17, 2026 and now operates through the combined company. The transaction creates a substantially larger rental-housing platform with more than 184,000 apartments, over $4.4 billion of active development, a targeted $125 million of net annual synergies and an S&P long-term issuer rating of A. These attributes support a favorable long-term operating and funding outlook. However, the merger is only days old, no combined-company operating guidance has been issued, and the expected efficiencies, development returns and integration benefits remain unproven in reported results. A Hold stance is therefore appropriate pending the first combined reporting periods and measurable evidence of synergy realization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$66.00 Mean target$73.05 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $66.0022% Integration takes longer or costs more than expected, the $125 million net-synergy target is reduced or delayed, and development lease-up or construction costs weaken returns. Rent regulation, new supply, local employment weakness or operating disruption limits revenue growth while the enlarged development program consumes capital. A dividend reduction or credit-rating downgrade would materially weaken the thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.0557% Matches the consensus meanIntegration proceeds without major disruption, but synergy capture and portfolio standardization require several reporting periods. The larger platform retains strong access to capital and the initial dividend while operating results remain mixed across markets. Legacy Equity Residential entered the transaction with 96.2% second-quarter occupancy and 1.4% same-store NOI growth, providing a stable but not high-growth baseline. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0021% The combined platform realizes at least the stated $125 million of net annual synergies, preserves more than $2 billion of annual self-funding capacity, maintains its A credit rating and converts the $4.4 billion active development portfolio into attractive incremental earnings. Scale in technology, centralized services, procurement and neighborhood operations produces durable margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |