Equity Bancshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $42.90median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $47.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $977.7M Shares Outstanding 21.8M diluted Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Equity Bancshares (EQBK) represents a compelling regional banking growth story, successfully executing a dual-pronged strategy of organic expansion and disciplined M&A. The transformational acquisition of Frontier Holdings (completed January 1, 2026) has expanded its footprint into Nebraska, driving a 41% year-over-year increase in assets to $7.7 billion. Despite near-term margin tightening and integration expenses, EQBK's core profitability remains robust with a Q1 2026 Core ROATCE of 16.10% and an efficiency ratio of 56.68%. Backed by strong capital levels (CET1 of 11.54%) and active share buybacks, the bank is well-positioned to achieve its $5.00 EPS target for 2026 as cost synergies are fully realized. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$51.00 Mean target$54.86 High · most bullish analyst$59.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $51.0015% Integration friction and deposit attrition in newly entered Nebraska markets pressure net interest margin below 4.15%. Acquired Frontier loan portfolios exhibit higher-than-expected credit deterioration, requiring elevated provisions for credit losses. Non-interest expenses remain elevated, dragging the efficiency ratio above 60% and limiting 2026 EPS to under $4.20. Base CaseCentral scenario $54.8655% Matches the consensus meanFrontier Bank integration proceeds on schedule, achieving guided cost savings. Net interest margin stabilizes within the guided 4.20% to 4.35% range. Organic loan growth continues at a mid-single-digit pace, and credit quality remains manageable with NPAs stabilizing. The bank achieves its target of $5.00 EPS for 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $59.0030% Rapid integration of Frontier Bank yields higher-than-expected cost synergies, driving the efficiency ratio below 53%. Strong organic loan growth in metropolitan hubs (Omaha, Kansas City, Tulsa) combined with successful repricing of acquired deposits expands the net interest margin toward 4.40%, pushing 2026 EPS above $5.25. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |