EQT Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

EQT Corp

EQTNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value $95.10median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$485based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $50.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 90% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+90%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $31.3B

Enterprise Value $36.9B

Shares Outstanding 641.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

EQT's second-quarter execution was operationally strong: sales volume exceeded guidance, unit costs were at the low end of guidance, full-year production guidance increased, capital guidance declined, and net debt fell materially from year-end. Long-term power and LNG arrangements add commercialization upside, but second-quarter realized pricing and free cash flow demonstrate continued sensitivity to natural-gas prices and Appalachian basis.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$52.00

Mean target$67.68

High · most bullish analyst$81.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$52.0020%

Weaker natural-gas realizations, wider Appalachian basis, cost slippage, or slower execution of infrastructure and demand projects could offset operational gains and move the shares toward the official 52-week low.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$67.6855%

Matches the consensus mean

Production remains within raised guidance, operating costs stay within the full-year range, and deleveraging continues, while commodity-price and basis volatility limit near-term rerating.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$81.0025%

Sustained well and compression outperformance, continued cost discipline, further debt reduction, and successful conversion of regional power and LNG demand into premium-priced sales could support a return toward the official 52-week high.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter sales volume of 634 Bcfe exceeded guidance, prompting EQT to raise full-year production guidance to 2,375-2,450 Bcfe while reducing maintenance-capital guidance.
Net debt declined to approximately $5.54 billion at June 30, 2026 from approximately $7.69 billion at December 31, 2025.
New power-supply and LNG arrangements broaden potential premium-demand exposure, including a ten-year 325,000 Dth/day power agreement and a five-year 0.5-million-tonne-per-year LNG offtake agreement.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter average realized price was $2.65 per Mcfe and the natural-gas differential was negative $0.67 per Mcf, illustrating material commodity-price and basis exposure.
Raised production depends on sustained well performance, compression benefits, infrastructure availability, and continued operational execution.
MVP Southgate, other infrastructure projects, LNG arrangements, and power-supply opportunities remain exposed to construction, regulatory, counterparty, and timing uncertainty.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.