Epsilon Energy Ltd Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $5.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $177.8M Enterprise Value $215.4M Shares Outstanding 30.2M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Epsilon Energy Ltd. is undergoing a highly constructive strategic transformation, shifting its asset mix away from low-margin Oklahoma gas toward high-margin, liquids-rich operations in the Powder River and Permian Basins. The acquisition of Peak Exploration and Production in late 2025 has materially expanded its liquids exposure and proved reserve base. Despite a GAAP net loss in FY2025 driven by transaction costs and asset divestiture losses, the company's underlying operational momentum is strong, as evidenced by a 58% year-over-year revenue surge in Q1 2026 to $25.6 million and a 26% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $13.4 million. Backed by a robust balance sheet, disciplined debt reduction, and an expanded $90 million borrowing base, Epsilon is well-positioned to accelerate oil-weighted production in H2 2026 and capitalize on a favorable oil price environment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential operational delays due to rig availability constraints, persistent downward pressure on natural gas prices, or further substantial non-cash unrealized hedge losses that depress GAAP earnings and investor sentiment. Capital commitments of $10.9 million could face inflationary pressures, squeezing free cash flow margins. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes successful execution of the company's H2 2026 drilling and completion program, particularly the Parkman drilling activity in Campbell County, Wyoming, and Marcellus completions. Oil-weighted production growth accelerates as guided, driving sequential margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation. The company maintains its quarterly dividend of $0.0625 per share while keeping leverage well within its target of 1x-1.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Bull CaseUpside scenario A debt-light producer growing oil volumes rapidly, paying a steady dividend, and adding scheduled oil production in the fourth quarter of 2026. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |