EPR Properties Dossier - Source-backed chat

EPR Properties

EPRNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $41.33median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $55.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.3B

Enterprise Value $7.5B

Shares Outstanding 77M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

EPR Properties is successfully transitioning from a pandemic-recovery narrative to an active growth phase, driven by the robust expansion of the 'experience economy'. The company is actively reducing its concentration in multiplex theaters (targeting <20% exposure) and education assets, while redeploying capital into high-quality, pure-play experiential properties such as regional attractions, fitness, and wellness venues. Backed by a highly stable 99% occupancy rate, strong 2.0x tenant rent coverage, and an investment-grade balance sheet, EPR offers an attractive 6%+ dividend yield with a secure sub-70% AFFO payout ratio. The strategic pivot, highlighted by the landmark $315 million Six Flags portfolio acquisition, supports a clear path toward multiple expansion and earnings growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$58.00

Mean target$63.85

High · most bullish analyst$70.50

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$58.00

Elevated interest rates persist, raising the cost of debt refinancing and compressing investment spreads. A macroeconomic slowdown tempers consumer discretionary spending, weakening tenant rent coverage below 2.0x. Delays in theater dispositions keep portfolio concentration high, causing the stock to trade at a persistent discount as a bond proxy with limited growth durability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$63.85

Matches the consensus mean

EPR executes on its raised 2026 investment guidance of $500 million to $600 million, successfully integrating the Six Flags attraction assets. FFOAA meets the updated guidance range of $5.37 to $5.53 per share, representing ~6.5% year-over-year growth. Occupancy remains stable at 99%, and the monthly dividend of $0.31 per share is comfortably covered by an AFFO payout ratio below 70%. The stock modestly re-rates as theater concentration steadily declines.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$70.50

Accelerated capital recycling and stronger-than-expected box office performance drive rapid theater exposure reduction below 20%. Reinvestment yields on new experiential acquisitions exceed expectations, leading to consecutive guidance raises. The market rewards the pure-play experiential profile with a multiple re-rating toward 12-13x FFOAA, while interest rates stabilize or decline, amplifying the stock's appeal as a high-yield growth vehicle.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

High portfolio stability with 99% occupancy and a weighted average lease term of approximately 11 years.
Strong tenant health demonstrated by a robust 2.0x unit-level rent coverage ratio.
Attractive and secure dividend yield of over 6% with a conservative AFFO payout ratio below 70%.
Clear strategic transformation underway to reduce theater exposure to under 20% and divest non-core education assets.
Investment-grade balance sheet with substantial liquidity, including an undrawn $1.0 billion revolving credit facility.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration in discretionary consumer entertainment and leisure tenants, making cash flows sensitive to macroeconomic downturns.
Sensitivity to elevated interest rates, which can increase the cost of debt refinancing and limit investment spreads.
Execution risk associated with redeploying recycled capital at sufficiently wide spreads to offset theater and education dispositions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant drop in portfolio occupancy below 95% due to major tenant defaults or bankruptcies.
Tenant rent coverage ratio falling below 1.5x, indicating widespread financial distress across experiential operators.
Inability to deploy capital, resulting in 2026 investment spending falling below the guided $500 million floor.
A dividend cut or failure to maintain the monthly payout of $0.31 per share.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.