EPAM Systems Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInformation Technology Services Beta (adjusted)1.26 Intrinsic Value $214.17median of 6 methods · middle span $173-$232based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $114.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 87% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+87%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.9B Enterprise Value $5.1B Shares Outstanding 52.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EPAM's second-quarter execution was stronger than its top-line outlook: organic constant-currency revenue grew 3.4%, non-GAAP operating margin reached 16.4%, and non-GAAP EPS increased 22.0%. Nevertheless, management's FY2026 organic growth guidance of 2.0%-3.0% and the 1.7% midpoint growth outlook for the third quarter indicate that demand remains subdued. Margin improvement, AI-native momentum and aggressive repurchases provide support, but negative first-half operating cash flow and a substantial decline in cash temper the risk-reward balance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$94.00 Mean target$122.82 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $94.0023% Growth falls below management's range as client spending remains cautious, while weak cash conversion limits further capital returns. Margin improvement proves temporary and EPS support from repurchases cannot offset lower operating momentum. Base CaseCentral scenario $122.8258% Matches the consensus meanEPAM delivers near its FY2026 guidance of 3.2%-4.2% reported revenue growth, 2.0%-3.0% organic constant-currency growth and a 15.5%-16.0% non-GAAP operating margin. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0019% AI-native demand broadens, quarterly organic growth accelerates beyond the FY2026 range, and EPAM sustains second-quarter margin performance. Continued repurchases amplify EPS growth while cash conversion normalizes. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |