EOG Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $196.04median of 6 methods · middle span $113-$386based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $141.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $74.1B Enterprise Value $77.1B Shares Outstanding 529M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Next ex-dividend16 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EOG entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter total production reached 1,410.4 MBoed, free cash flow was $2.799 billion, and management retained full-year guidance for 5% oil growth and 14% total-production growth. Cash operating costs remained close to the full-year guidance midpoint, while $1.8 billion was returned through dividends and repurchases during the quarter. The recommendation is therefore a valuation-neutral Hold rather than a negative view of operating quality. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$127.00 Mean target$158.52 High · most bullish analyst$193.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $127.0020% Production falls below the 1,378.3 MBoed guidance floor, capital expenditures exceed $6.7 billion, or cash operating costs rise above $11.35 per Boe. A commodity-price reversal, weaker well performance, or integration and international-execution problems would compound those pressures and reduce free cash flow available for shareholder returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $158.5255% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes full-year production remains within the 1,378.3-1,423.1 MBoed guidance range, capital expenditures remain within $6.3-$6.7 billion, and cash operating costs remain within $10.05-$11.35 per Boe. This would preserve positive free cash flow and regular capital returns, although results remain sensitive to commodity prices. Bull CaseUpside scenario $193.0025% Production reaches or exceeds the 1,423.1 MBoed upper end of full-year guidance, cash operating costs remain near the $10.05 per Boe lower bound, and UAE appraisal builds on the initial successful oil tests. Strong commodity realizations and continued capital discipline would support free cash flow and additional shareholder distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |