Envista Holdings Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $22.43median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$27based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $23.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.7B Enterprise Value $4B Shares Outstanding 162.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Envista Holdings Corp (NYSE: NVST) presents a compelling but unproven turnaround story. While the company delivered a strong start to 2026 with Q1 core revenue growth of 9.5% and gross margin expansion of 100 basis points, near-term macro volatility, tariff headwinds, and intense competition in clear aligners and implants offset these operational improvements. The stock trades at a reasonable forward valuation, but persistent headwinds from China procurement reforms and seasonally weak early-year cash flows warrant a wait-and-see approach until sustainable margin expansion is fully established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$30.57 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0020% Turnaround efforts stall due to worsening pricing pressure from China's procurement reforms, escalating tariff costs, and market share losses to aggressive competitors in the digital dentistry space. Free cash flow conversion falls short of the 100% target, leading to multiple compression and downward revisions of EPS guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $30.5750% Matches the consensus meanEnvista achieves steady, moderate core revenue growth of 2% to 4% and maintains adjusted EBITDA margins around 14%. The company successfully executes its $300 million share buyback program through 2029, while managing ongoing headwinds from China VBP and tariff costs. Valuation remains stable as the turnaround progresses gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.0030% Accelerated adoption of premium products like Spark clear aligners and Nobel Biocare implants, combined with successful execution of the Envista Business System (EBS) productivity playbook, drives rapid margin expansion. Stronger-than-expected international growth and successful mitigation of tariff headwinds lead to a re-rating of the stock toward historical multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |