Enterprise Financial Services Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Enterprise Financial Services Corp

EFSCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value $49.36median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $59.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.2B

Shares Outstanding 36.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) represents a high-quality, diversified regional banking franchise with a strong footprint in the Midwest and Southwest. The company has demonstrated resilient profitability, maintaining a stable net interest margin (NIM) of 4.28% and solid capital ratios (CET1 of 11.7%) despite a complex interest rate environment. With a conservative dividend payout ratio of approximately 24% and a consistent history of dividend increases, EFSC offers an attractive combination of income and capital appreciation. The stock trades at a reasonable valuation relative to its historical averages and peers, presenting a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$68.00

Mean target$71.80

High · most bullish analyst$74.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong and stable Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 4.28%, outperforming many regional banking peers.
Robust capital position with a CET1 ratio of 11.7% and TCE ratio of 9.01%, providing a strong buffer and flexibility for growth.
Attractive shareholder return profile with a sustainable dividend yield (~2.2%) and active share repurchase program.
Geographic and business line diversification, including specialized lending niches like tax credit services and life insurance premium finance.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent deposit competition and rising funding costs could compress net interest margins.
Credit quality deterioration in commercial and industrial (C&I) or commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios under elevated interest rates.
Integration risks associated with recent branch acquisitions or future M&A activities.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.