Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Entegris entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter net sales were $883.2 million, adjusted EBITDA margin was 28.4%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.93. Management guided third-quarter sales to $905 million-$935 million and adjusted EBITDA margin to 28.0%-29.0%. However, the shares closed at $134.92 on August 28 after a 7.15% daily decline and have traded between $67.97 and $186.94 over the preceding 52 weeks. The combination of improving semiconductor demand and execution supports the operating outlook.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$120.00
Mean target$173.36
High · most bullish analyst$215.00
Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$120.0025%

Third-quarter sales fall below $905 million or adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 28% as semiconductor demand, export restrictions, customer concentration, supply constraints, or geopolitical conditions weaken performance. The unusually wide 52-week trading range indicates that an operating disappointment could produce substantial downside volatility.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$173.3656%
Matches the consensus mean

Third-quarter sales remain within management's $905 million-$935 million range and adjusted EBITDA margin remains within 28.0%-29.0%. The November Investor Day provides additional visibility into the longer-term operating framework.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$215.0019%

Semiconductor demand and customer capital investment accelerate enough to take third-quarter sales above the $935 million guidance ceiling while adjusted EBITDA margin exceeds 29%. Increasing participation at advanced technology nodes and successful defense of CMP-slurry patents reinforce product differentiation and support sustained operating momentum.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Second-quarter 2026 net sales reached $883.2 million versus $792.4 million a year earlier and $811.9 million in the preceding quarter.
  • Second-quarter adjusted operating margin increased to 24.5% from 20.9% a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA margin reached 28.4%.
  • Patent authorities in Taiwan and China upheld Entegris patents covering acidic colloidal-silica slurry technology, reinforcing protection around differentiated CMP products.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Management identifies semiconductor-demand cyclicality, export controls, geopolitical instability, supply interruptions, customer concentration, rapid technology change, competition, and indebtedness among material uncertainties.
  • The August 28 closing price of $134.92 was 7.15% below the prior close, while the published 52-week range was $67.97-$186.94, demonstrating substantial share-price volatility.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.