Ensign Group Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $177.68median of 6 methods · middle span $119-$318based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $169.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.9B Enterprise Value $9.8B Shares Outstanding 59.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ensign entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter consolidated revenue increased 17.3%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 20.8%, same-facility occupancy reached 84.1%, skilled mix improved, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS and revenue guidance. Clinical indicators and leadership retention also compare favorably with relevant industry benchmarks. The principal offsets are execution risk from rapid acquisition growth, the occupancy gap at recently acquired facilities, reimbursement and regulatory exposure. The resulting stance is operationally constructive but valuation-neutral. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$207.00 Mean target$220.00 High · most bullish analyst$230.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $207.0020% The downside case assumes weaker reimbursement, regulatory or professional-liability pressure, or difficulty integrating a rapidly expanding portfolio. Recently acquired facility occupancy of 76.6% remained materially below same-facility occupancy, creating execution sensitivity if clinical and operating improvements take longer than expected. Base CaseCentral scenario $220.0055% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes results remain within management's raised 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $7.75-$7.85 and revenue guidance of $5.87-$5.92 billion, with mature facilities sustaining low-to-mid-80% occupancy while newer assets improve gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $230.0025% The upside case assumes continued same-facility occupancy and skilled-mix gains, successful integration of recently acquired operations, and further earnings outperformance. Ensign's clinical results, local operating model, acquisition pipeline, liquidity, and expanded repurchase authorization provide potential support. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |