Ennis Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryCommercial Printing Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $19.46median of 5 methods · middle span $17-$24based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $22.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $570.5M Enterprise Value $530.4M Shares Outstanding 25.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ennis, Inc. (NYSE: EBF) represents a highly resilient, low-beta dividend play in the mature printed business products sector. Despite facing secular headwinds in traditional business forms, the company has successfully defended its profitability through strict pricing discipline, cost-control measures, and a highly effective roll-up acquisition strategy. With a debt-free balance sheet, strong cash flow generation, and a sustainable dividend yield of approximately 4.8%, Ennis offers solid downside protection and steady income for value-oriented investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$24.00 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The secular decline in traditional business forms accelerates faster than acquisitions can offset, leading to persistent top-line contraction. Severe inflationary pressures on raw materials (like carbonless paper) compress gross margins below 28%, threatening dividend coverage. Base CaseCentral scenario The company continues to offset organic volume declines in legacy business forms through strategic tuck-in acquisitions (such as CFC Print & Mail and Northeastern Envelope) and expansion into higher-growth categories like labels and specialty packaging. Gross margins remain stable above 30% due to pricing power and operational efficiencies, supporting a steady $1.00 annual dividend. Bull CaseUpside scenario Ennis's bull case is driven by its highly consistent, debt-free balance sheet, robust cash flow generation, and a successful acquisition-led strategy (such as CFC Print & Mail, NEC, and ESS) that expands its product capabilities and geographic reach to offset secular declines in traditional print. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |