Eni Spa ADR Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas Beta (adjusted)0.60 Intrinsic Value $38.37median of 6 methods · middle span $30-$171based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $54.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $78B Enterprise Value $95B Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend19 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Eni enters the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter underlying production increased 11% year over year to 1.79 million boe/d, FY2026 production-growth guidance rose to approximately 5%, adjusted CFFO guidance reached €15 billion, and pro forma gearing was about 10%. Management also expanded the 2026 buyback to €3.4 billion while maintaining the €1.10 ordinary-share dividend. The issuer-hosted analyst table contains 22 active numerical targets with 11 Buy, 10 Hold and one Sell recommendation; their ordinary-share targets average €25.60. For ADR comparability, scenario targets apply Eni's disclosed 1 ADR-to-2-ordinary-share ratio and the 1.16 EUR/USD assumption in its July outlook. Commodity sensitivity, execution of major upstream developments, Plenitude deconsolidation and currency translation remain material risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$49.00 Mean target$52.88 High · most bullish analyst$60.80 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $49.0016% Commodity normalization, weaker refining margins or project delays reduce cash generation and shareholder-return capacity. The downside ADR target converts the €19.00 lowest active ordinary-share target using two ordinary shares per ADR and EUR/USD 1.16. Base CaseCentral scenario $52.8856% Matches the consensus meanEni broadly delivers its €15 billion adjusted-CFFO outlook, €7 billion gross-capex plan, approximately 5% production growth and €3.4 billion buyback while pro forma gearing remains within 10%-15%. The base ADR target converts the €25.60 arithmetic mean of 22 active numerical ordinary-share targets using two shares per ADR and EUR/USD 1.16. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.8028% Sustained commodity and refining strength, delivery of approximately 5% FY2026 production growth, successful project ramp-ups and transition-business execution support the high end of the issuer-hosted analyst range. The ADR target converts the €30.00 highest active ordinary-share target using two ordinary shares per ADR and EUR/USD 1.16. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |